The Brewers know they’re going to eventually lose Corbin Burnes, their best starting pitcher, whom they control for only one more season. They are not going to commit the $275 million to $350 million it’s likely going to take to sign him beyond next year, and the three-time All-Star would be unlikely to sign an extension now anyway, when he’s this close to reaching free agency and learning his true value on the open market.
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Milwaukee has already lost right-hander Brandon Woodruff for most, if not all, of 2024 after shoulder surgery, then lost former manager Craig Counsell to the rival Cubs. (They also declined outfielder Mark Canha’s team option and traded him to Detroit for a minor-league pitcher at the beginning of the month.) They can’t afford to wait and lose Burnes for just draft-pick compensation a year from now, if they keep him, extend a qualifying offer next November and then he signs elsewhere.
The small-market Brewers have made the postseason in five of the past six years. They have a promising core of young position players, with uber-prospect Jackson Chourio on the way, but several big questions to answer this offseason. Dealing Burnes would hurt and it would be a bitter pill for the fan base to swallow, especially now, but it’s the right call. A trade this winter would also save significant salary, as Burnes is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive $15.1 million in his final year of arbitration.
Burnes, 29, went 10-8 this year with a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts (193 2/3 innings). He stuck out 200 batters for the third consecutive season and led the NL with 1.069 WHIP. For his career, Burnes is 45-27 with a 3.26 ERA over six years and 709 1/3 innings. He finished in the top seven in the NL Cy Young voting from 2020 to 2022 and won the award in ’21 when he led the majors with a 2.43 ERA and 1.63 FIP.
He ranked in the 96th percentile in pitching run value this year according to Baseball Savant. Opposing batters hit .209 against his cutter, .132 against his wipeout curveball, .204 against his changeup and .162 against his nasty slider. Bottom line: He’s a coveted No. 1 starter.
But the Brewers might have to wait until the robust free-agent pitching market settles before making a deal because many teams would prefer to keep their prospects and just open their checkbooks to get their ace.
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However, there are several contenders that would prefer to land a one-year rental ace without the long-term injury risk that comes with a nine-figure contract for a top free-agent starter. When those deals go bad, it can be devastating, as the Nationals learned with Stephen Strasburg and the Red Sox with Chris Sale, and on and on. In addition, some teams are built for the long term and want to be able to extend key players on their roster, but also are close enough to World Series contention that a pitcher such as Burnes could put them over the top in 2024.
Let’s look at five teams that fit as trade partners with the Brewers in a Burnes deal, and possible packages that could make sense for both sides.
The Brewers would have no shortage of suitors if they decide to trade Corbin Burnes this winter. (Scott Galvin / USA Today)1. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles went 101-61 this year and were good enough to win a world championship but lacked the necessary starting pitching. That was evident in the playoffs. They needed a starter who could do what Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery did for the Rangers: shut down the opposition for six innings and deliver in the biggest moments on the biggest stage. Burnes can do that. If you put Burnes at the top of their rotation with Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles might just win their first World Series title since 1983.
Let’s make a deal: The Orioles certainly have a deep enough farm system to make a trade of this magnitude without having to deal their very best prospects. A package consisting of corner infielder Coby Mayo, left-hander DL Hall, right-hander Chayce McDermott and outfielder Dylan Beavers would probably be close to what it would take to land Burnes. A steep price for a one-year rental, but probably worth it for a strong shot to win it all.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers won 100 games this year but clearly didn’t have enough starting pitching to go far in the postseason. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and coming off shoulder surgery; it’s unknown if he’ll be able to pitch at all in 2024. Walker Buehler is working to return from his second Tommy John surgery but he couldn’t make it back to the mound in September or October as expected because of a hiccup during the rehab. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2024. Dustin May had surgery in July to repair the flexor tendon in his right elbow and only time will tell how he bounces back from that injury. Julio Urías is on administrative leave as he’s being investigated for domestic violence allegations; he will never pitch for the Dodgers again. That leaves the Dodgers with 24-year-old Bobby Miller leading the way and a lot of question marks for their rotation next year. Signing a free-agent starter and trading for a stopgap like Burnes makes sense. The Dodgers also have the resources to sign him long-term if desired.
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Let’s make a deal: The Dodgers’ farm system remains one of the best so finding a trade that works for Milwaukee should not be difficult. Perhaps a package featuring two of their best pitching prospects, right-handers Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot, could be the foundation of a blockbuster. Or maybe a deeper dive into their system for a package of 19-year-old standouts, righty Payton Martin and outfielder Kendall George, a 2023 first-round pick who can really hit. Or perhaps something in between such as outfielder Andy Pages and third baseman Jake Gelof, a second-rounder this year. Bottom line, there are several ways the Dodgers and Brewers could match up on a trade for Burnes.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ lack of rotation depth was glaring during the postseason, with question marks after Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Burnes would bolster that group and dramatically enhance Arizona’s chances of returning to the postseason next year. The Diamondbacks aren’t going to trade any of the best young players on their major-league roster, including shortstop Jordan Lawlar. They’re also not going to move either of their past two first-round picks, shortstop Tommy Troy and center fielder Druw Jones, despite the latter’s injuries and lack of success early in his pro career. However, they still have enough to make a run at Burnes.
Let’s make a deal: The Diamondbacks could begin to build a trade package with lefty Yu-Min Lin, their best pitching prospect, plus outfielder Jack Hurley, their third-round pick in this year’s draft, and perhaps Kristian Robinson, a speedy, athletic outfielder, a type that the Brewers seem to covet. Or Arizona could offer a power package of corner infielders featuring Deyvison De Los Santos, who hit 20 home runs in Double A this past season, and Ivan Melendez, who walloped 30 between High A and Double A in 2023.
4. Texas Rangers
The Rangers would like to re-sign Montgomery, who was instrumental in their championship run, but I don’t know whether they’re going to pay his asking price with so many other options available. They have a pair of former Cy Young Award winners, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, to help them defend their title next year, but of course that duo comes with uncertainty. The Rangers are hoping deGrom recovers well from his second Tommy John surgery and can return late in the 2024 season, and that Scherzer can stay healthy, stem his decline and provide 180 innings. However, after Eovaldi, Scherzer and Jon Gray, there are questions about the rotation. Enter Corbin Burnes?
Let’s make a deal: The Rangers’ system is stocked enough to pull off a Burnes deal. Their top prospect, Wyatt Langford, is practically major-league-ready, so he can probably play left field on Opening Day with Evan Carter moving to center field, which would allow Texas to include Leody Taveras, 25, in the deal. Taveras hit 14 home runs, stole 14 bases, played plus-plus center field and probably should have made the American League All-Star team last season. The Rangers also could offer second baseman Justin Foscue (.394 on-base percentage last season at Triple A with 18 homers, 31 doubles and 84 RBIs), who is expendable because of the long-term deal with Marcus Semien, plus a top pitching prospect like righty Josh Stephan. The Brewers would have a difficult time saying no to that package.
5. San Francisco Giants
The Giants are the best in baseball at fielding a team filled with undervalued players who are all at least major-league average or above talent-wise. However, as I’ve said many times, they just haven’t been able to surround those players with the stars that it takes to win championships. This is a critical offseason for the Giants front office, which needs to start delivering the star power through both signings and trades. Adding Burnes to the front of their rotation with Logan Webb (plus Kyle Harrison and Anthony DeSclafani) would be that type of meaningful move.
Let’s make a deal: For the Giants to even be in the conversation for Burnes, they’d have to start their package with lefty Carson Whisenhunt, which they’re not going to want to do. Whisenhunt, 23, posted a 2.45 ERA in 16 starts last season, with 83 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings across three minor-league levels. A second-round pick out of East Carolina in 2022, Whisenhunt is the type of name that speeds up trade talks. Perhaps a prospect package of Whisenhunt, outfielder Jairo Pomares and infielder Diego Velasquez would get a deal done.
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(Top photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
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